The absence of a bipartisan strategy to fulfill national and international carbon targets is borne by all Australians. This is due to the fact that investors are exposed to risk when there is uncertainty, and this risk raises the financing costs of energy megaprojects, which must be recovered.
Even before an investigation of whether course is the most cost-effective, suitable, or timely for our energy transition, adding the Coalition's nuclear proposals to that mix only serves to increase uncertainty.
However, as a possible component of Australia's future energy mix, nuclear energy should not be legally outlawed. Since the last few percent of attaining a carbon-free energy system later in the 2040s will be costly regardless of the choice used, there are good reasons to abolish legal limitations on it in order to create flexibility.
Now, where are we?
Australia is once more at a crossroads in terms of party politics and climate change policy in the run-up to the federal election.
We still lack a cohesive strategy for energy and achieving emissions objectives after almost ten years of party-driven discussion. There are still two options available to us in this election to decarbonize Australia's electrical industry.
Despite some pressure on the trajectory, the Labor government is sticking to its goal of 82% renewable electricity by 2030. Even though 2024 is predicted to see a record 4.3 gigawatts of approved large-scale solar and wind projects and 3.2GW of installed small-scale rooftop solar, renewable installations have plateaued.
Although the cause of the slowdown is multifaceted, community opposition to transmission lines, wind farms, and solar farms, as well as connectivity issues for large-scale renewables, are contributing factors.
The Coalition's strategy
Although the Coalition has not yet set intermediate benchmarks, it shares Labor's 2050 net-zero aim.
Instead, it has committed to integrating nuclear into the energy mix, beginning with the commissioning of two small modular reactors in South Australia and Western Australia in 2035. These reactors are usually smaller than 300 megawatts.
Only China and Russia have constructed small modular reactors for commercial use; no such reactors have been constructed in the West.
The Coalition intends for these to begin generating power in 2037 in two locations in each of Queensland and New South Wales, as well as one in Victoria, if large-scale reactors prove to be the superior choice.
The Coalition's nuclear timeline is also questioned for its viability. Recent construction times in the West have considerably beyond ten years, according to international experience, yet they are less than nine years in nations with different regulatory and governance structures, such as the United Arab Emirates.
Keeping the possibilities open
However, Australia must first develop a plan and a regulatory framework before any nuclear power plants can be constructed.
Including the period required to obtain the social license, that may take up to five years.
According to opinion polls, there is a claim that Australia should do this regardless and lift the current legal ban on nuclear energy.
If it made sense in the future, that would enable Australia to be prepared to embrace the nuclear option right away.
An optimistic 10-year build schedule would mean that nuclear power would not be expected to begin producing electricity in Australia for at least 15 years, given five years to design and develop a regulatory framework.
In all likelihood, nuclear power plants in Australia would not begin generating electricity until the 2040s if the Coalition launched a nuclear energy program following the 2025 election.
If a coalition administration wanted to replace aging coal-fired power units on the same location with nuclear plants, this would be an issue.
According to the Australian Energy Market Operator, 90% of coal-fired power plants will be retired within ten years, with all coal-fired power plants expected to be retired by 2037. By 2040, all coal-fired power plants will have been supplanted by wind and solar electricity.
Additionally, it will be far more difficult to meet the 2050 net-zero emissions objective if the Coalition intends to provide subsidies to coal plants in order to prolong their lifespan.
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